The Global Political Economy of the future will be shaped by an intensifying hegemonic contest over financial infrastructures. Control over U.S. dollar clearing and influence over the SWIFT system have become powerful instruments of financial statecraft—particularly for implementing sanctions. The use of these tools in recent years has exposed the hierarchical nature of the payment infrastructures underpinning global trade. This development has also triggered warnings that such practices could undermine U.S. hegemony in global finance.

This issue is poised to become a central geoeconomic trend, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, especially in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the definitive reorientation of U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump presidency. This shift marks a move away from previous multilateral approaches in favor of an overt focus on U.S. sovereign and commercial interests. The range of entities subject to sanctions pressure has expanded significantly, and navigating these pressures is likely to become increasingly challenging under the new U.S. approach.

These dynamics will influence the strategic decision-making of both states and firms. To remain globally competitive, firms must adapt by diversifying their international strategies and approaching public-private partnerships with heightened sensitivity to geoeconomic considerations. States, in turn, will need to develop alternative settlement mechanisms (e.g., CBDCs) to preserve their foreign policy autonomy and maintain integration in global trade.